Tuesday 6 November 2012

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As of this morning, hurricane Sandy’s peak winds have dropped to 80 mph (Category 1 hurricane), but that absolutely does not mean the threat to the eastern U.S. has decreased. Quite the opposite, in fact. It is forecast to re-organize and strengthen on its inevitable approach to the East Coast.
All forecast models are now clustering on a landfall between the Delmarva peninsula and Cape Cod. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center forecasts the center to move over the Delaware Bay with the cone of uncertainty spanning from Cape Hatteras up to eastern Long Island. Sandy is now responsible for at least 21 deaths across Haiti (9), Jamaica (1), and Cuba (11), as well as severe damage to homes and infrastructure due to flash flooding and mudslides. At 11 a.m. EDT, the center was located just north of the western Bahamas heading north at 6 mph. Tropical storm watches have been posted for the Carolinas and will likely be extended northward later today. Sandy is much less organized than it has been the past few days, with all of the deep “convection” (fancy word for thunderstorms) displaced to the north due to strong vertical wind shear (changing winds with height which disrupt the storm). 

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